/library/oar/handle/123456789/16881 2025-12-29T15:25:22Z /library/oar/handle/123456789/33551 Title: How best to measure pension adequacy Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: Though the main benchmark used to assess pension reforms continues to be the expected resulting fall in future government spending, the impact of policy changes on pension adequacy is increasingly coming to the fore. As yet, there does not seem to be a broad consensus in policymaking circles and academic literature on what constitutes the best measure of pension adequacy. While various indicators have been developed and utilised, no single measure appears to offer a clear indication of the extent to which reforms will impact on the achievement of pension system goals. Many indicators appear ill-suited to study the effective impact of reforms, particularly those that change the nature of the pension system from defined benefit to defined contribution. 2013-04-01T00:00:00Z /library/oar/handle/123456789/33484 Title: Assessing the sustainability of pension reforms in Europe Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: Europe’s pensions landscape has changed dramatically since the 1990s. This paper tries to assess better the impact of these changes using a broad social sustainability framework. Pension wealth estimates for a variety of hypothetical cases are used to assess the ability of systems to alleviate poverty and maintain living standards, while setting out how reforms could change future costs and relative entitlements for different generations. By focusing on all prospective transfers rather than those at retirement and by looking into the interaction between entitlements and labour participation, this approach provides additional insights into the impact of reforms. Our estimates suggest that generosity has fallen significantly, but remains strong in many countries. However, moves to link benefits to contributions have raised adequacy concerns for certain groups and strengthened the need for longer careers. Although reforms have helped address fiscal challenges, in many countries pressures remain strong and further reforms are likely. 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z /library/oar/handle/123456789/33483 Title: Pension reform sustainability in the EU : a pension wealth-based framework Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: Most assessments of pension sustainability focus on the projected fall in spending. However interest in the impact on adequacy, usually measured by replacement rates, is increasing. In this paper we show that replacement rates have significant defects, related to being point-in-time indicators and the use of unrepresentative assumptions. We argue for the use of pension wealth calculated using more realistic assumptions. Looking at ten EU countries, we find that while generosity decreased significantly, systems’ effectiveness in alleviating poverty remain strong in countries where minimum pensions were improved. However, moves to link benefits to contributions have raised concerns for women and for those on low incomes. Though reforms have reduced the fiscal challenge of ageing, in many countries pressures will persist and further reforms are likely. 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z /library/oar/handle/123456789/33482 Title: Adapting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for very small open economies Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used method, particularly in potential output studies. However its suitability depends on a number of conditions. Very small open economies do not satisfy these as their macroeconomic series exhibit pronounced trends, large fluctuations and recurrent breaks. Consequently the use of the filter results in random changes in the output gap that are out of line with the concept of equilibrium. Two suggestions are put forward. The first involves defining the upper and lower bounds of a series and determining equilibrium as a weighted average of the filter applied separately on these bounds. The second involves an integration of structural features into the standard filter to allow researchers to set limits on the impact of structural/temporary shocks and allow for lengthy periods of disequilibria. This paper shows that these methods can result in a smoother output gap series for the smallest Euro Area economies. 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z